March Madness Sleepers: 4 Mid-Majors Built to Bust Your Bracket
SETTING THE STAGE
Every year, March Madness delivers a Cinderella story—some mid-major program that sends a top seed packing and captures the hearts of fans. This season, a few teams are quietly building their cases as prime bracket-busters. Saint Mary’s, Drake, UC San Diego, and Liberty aren’t just small-school afterthoughts; these squads have the coaching, experience, and unique play styles to make deep runs. Here’s why these four teams could be the ones tearing up brackets in 2025.
Saint Mary’s Gaels (West Coast Conference)
Why They’re Dangerous
Saint Mary’s is a program that never gets enough respect, but they keep winning. They’ve owned the West Coast Conference this season, finishing 26–4 (16–1 WCC) while knocking off Gonzaga twice. They have the perfect upset formula: lockdown defense, disciplined play, and a slow, grinding pace that forces teams into uncomfortable half-court battles.
Key Stats:
Elite defense: Allow just 60.7 PPG (4th in NCAA).
Deliberate pace: Rank 359th in tempo—opponents hate playing slow against them.
Rebounding machine: +9.9 rebounding margin, meaning they dominate second-chance opportunities.
Defensive efficiency: Top-10 in KenPom adjusted defensive rankings.
Who To Watch
Augustas Marčiulionis (G) – Steady playmaker, 14.0 PPG, 4.3 APG.
Paulius Murauskas (F) – Versatile big, 13.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG.
Mitchell Saxen (C) – Defensive anchor, 10.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG.
Tournament Outlook
Projected as a 6 or 7-seed, Saint Mary’s is going to be a brutal matchup for any high-scoring team. They dictate the pace, play stifling defense, and make opponents uncomfortable. In recent tournaments, teams like Virginia, Loyola Chicago, and San Diego State have thrived using a similar formula. If they keep teams under 65 points, they can grind their way into the Sweet 16—and maybe further.
Drake Bulldogs (Missouri Valley Conference)
Why They’re Dangerous
Drake is one of the most disciplined teams in the country. At 27–3 (16–2 MVC), they’ve controlled the Missouri Valley and boast wins over Miami, Vanderbilt, and Kansas State. Their style is built for March: they play slow, force mistakes, and rarely beat themselves. If you want a team that will frustrate the hell out of a higher seed, Drake is it.
Key Stats:
Lockdown defense: Allowing 59.2 PPG (3rd in NCAA).
Turnover advantage: +2.4 turnover margin—they don’t make mistakes.
Three-point defense: Opponents shoot just 30.8% from beyond the arc.
Free throw reliability: 77.8% as a team (top 20 nationally).
Who To Watch
Bennett Stirtz (G) – Breakout star, 18.8 PPG, 50% FG.
Daniel Abreu (F) – Strong inside presence, 11.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG.
Mitch Mascari (G) – Deadeye shooter, 42.9% from three.
Tournament Outlook
Drake is likely an 11 or 12-seed, which makes them prime upset material. They almost knocked out Miami last year as a 12-seed and return with a more battle-tested roster. Teams that struggle against patient, defensive-minded squads will hate playing them. Expect them to be a trendy pick for a first-round upset and a deep run if they get the right matchups.
UC San Diego Tritons (Big West Conference)
Why They’re Dangerous
UC San Diego might be the best Cinderella story waiting to happen. They’re in their first year of full NCAA eligibility after transitioning to Division I, and they’ve wasted no time making noise. They finished 25–4 (16–2 Big West), won the conference, and even took down #25 Utah State earlier this season. They play fast, score a ton, and have the firepower to shock a higher seed.
Key Stats:
Offensive firepower: 80.3 PPG, one of the highest in mid-major basketball.
Deadly from deep: 36% team three-point shooting.
Defensive disruptors: 8.9 steals per game.
Balanced attack: Four players averaging 10+ PPG.
Who To Watch
Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (G/F) – Star playmaker, 19.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.4 APG.
Tyler McGhie (G) – Sniper, 16.6 PPG, 42% 3PT.
Nordin Kapic (F) – Inside-out scorer, 10.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG.
Tournament Outlook
If UCSD wins the Big West Tournament, they’ll be a 12 or 13-seed—a spot where upsets happen every year. They play at a high pace, spread the floor, and shoot well, which makes them a nightmare matchup for slower teams. If they catch fire from three, they could make serious noise in the bracket.
Liberty Flames (C-USA)
Why They’re Dangerous
Liberty is built for March Madness upsets. They play elite defense, control tempo, and shoot lights-out from three—a deadly combination for knocking off higher seeds. At 23–5 (12–4 C-USA), they’ve already beaten Kansas State and McNeese State, showing they can handle bigger programs. If they control the pace, they’re a nightmare to play against.
Key Stats:
Defensive clamps: Allow just 60.9 PPG (6th in NCAA).
Perimeter lockdown: Opponents shoot just 27.2% from three.
Lights-out shooters: 10.3 made threes per game at 37.8%.
Smart basketball: +2.4 turnover margin, low fouls per game.
Who To Watch
Kaden Metheny (G) – Floor general, 13.1 PPG.
Taelon Peter (G/F) – Slashing scorer, 12.8 PPG.
Zach Cleveland (F) – Versatile big, 10.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.9 APG.
Tournament Outlook
Liberty will likely be a 12 or 13-seed, which means they’ll face a 5 or 4-seed that might not be ready for them. They’ve done this before—they upset a 5-seed in 2019—and have the right formula for another deep run. If they get hot from three, they could win multiple games in this tournament.
Final Thoughts
These four teams aren’t just lovable underdogs—they’re legitimate threats. Whether it’s Saint Mary’s grinding out wins, Drake frustrating opponents, UC San Diego’s scoring explosion, or Liberty’s defensive clamps, one of these teams is going to make a run.
If you’re looking for this year’s bracket-buster, start here. March Madness is unpredictable, but bet against these teams at your own risk.